Malaysian Institute of Economic Research

SEMINARS: Fourteenth Corporate Economic Briefing

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?

The global economic crisis is getting worse by the week, without any signs of stabilising. The World Bank has recently said that the global economy is going to shrink for the first time since World War II. Most major developed countries are in recession, and through commercial and financial ties, many East Asian countries have fallen into recession as well. As global demand crashes, hardships have spread even to countries with little connection to the source of the crisis. In response to the economic downturn, countries have resorted to aggressive interest rate cuts and massive fiscal pump priming. With tight credit and consumer and business confidence nose-diving, stimulus packages can only provide little comfort amidst a deep global economic turmoil. Until there are signs of bottoming out in the US, the epicentre of the crisis, it is unlikely that improvements will emerge elsewhere. The US authorities are using all means available to contain the damage and arrest the downward spiral, but the US economy remains in the doldrums. This calls for greater coordinated efforts by the global community. Poor countries that are badly affected need global assistance as well.

With little results coming out of the first stimulus package, the Malaysian government unveiled a second package worth RM60 billion recently. This package appears to have a wider coverage, including measures to help retrenched workers, steps to get loans flowing to the business sector, subsidies to keep prices of necessities in check and funds to boost investments. The government has lowered its growth forecast for 2009 to a range of -1.0 to 1.0 per cent, cautioning that hard times may last longer than earlier expected.

Again the question is whether the stimulus package will work to prevent a deep recession. The recurring concerns are over the speed and efficiency in the implementation, particularly when the funds from the first stimulus have not been fully disbursed. With the fiscal deficit ballooning to 7.6 per cent in 2009, do we have additional resources if the crisis were to prolong? What other steps can be taken if the second package is not enough? Although current conditions justify the deficit spending, what are some of the longer-term implications? Can we avoid our own banking crisis? Have we done enough to revive consumer confidence and spur spending again? What do MIER's business conditions survey results show regarding private sector confidence in the Malaysian economy? How do consumers feel about their financial well-being and the job market? What will happen to the stock market and the ringgit? Will interest rates fall further? What about the social impact of the crisis? Can the economy rebound quickly?

The Corporate Economic Briefing by MIER is a forum for discussing these and other issues of concern to the Malaysian economy. We will present the results of the first quarter 2009 business conditions and consumer sentiment surveys during the briefing. We will also be updating the four industry indices for the retail trade, residential property, tourism and automotive sectors. Targeted at senior management and industry captains, this event encourages frank discussion with plenty of stimulating debates. Come join us and keep abreast with the latest happenings in the Malaysian economy. Attendance is limited and will be on first-come-first-served basis.

PROGRAMME

Wednesday, 15 April 2009, Parkroyal Hotel Kuala Lumpur
08.30 a.m.	Registration
09.00 a.m.	Briefing by Emeritus Professor Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff Executive Director, MIER
10.30 a.m.	Refreshment
11.00 a.m.	Open Discussion
12.00 noon	lunch
Registration Fees:	RM400.00 per person for MIER Members RM500.00 per person for Others

Click here to download the 14th CEB Registration form.